And So It Begins...

After countless hours on the plane, Warren Schlesinger and I have arrived in Bali, Indonesia in order to participate in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 10,000 people from across the globe are expected to meet here to discuss the next steps in addressing climate change. While the Kyoto Protocol commitment period approaches (2008-2012), delegates hope to agree upon the basic framework that will establish post-Kyoto emission reduction commitments. The idea is to build the next climate treaty in time to take effect immediately after the Kyoto Protocol commitment period ends, so there is no gap in time between the agreements. Any gap would likely ruin carbon trading markets and the other flexibility mechanisms that make up the rules and implementation strategies of Kyoto. Many countries and NGOs believe that the next climate treaty needs to be decided by 2009, so there is time for countries around the world to ratify it before the end of 2012. While no firm commitments are expected to be made in Bali on the details of the next treaty, delegates are hoping to come a bit closer to deciding what will be included post-Kyoto.

In addition to the timeline of developing the next treaty, one of the key issues is whether the post-2012 regime, as some call it, will have legally binding emission commitments. One of the most distinguishing aspects of the current Kyoto Protocol is that it does contain legally binding emission commitments meaning that consequences exist for countries that do not meet their greenhouse gas reduction targets. Environmental groups feel that it is critically important to create new mandatory commitments following Kyoto, rather than agree to weaker voluntary commitments. While all countries say they’re supportive of a new agreement to tackle climate change, many countries, such as Japan, have so far excluded language in their statements about legally binding emission reductions. Some believe this is a sign that delegates are aiming to take a step backward in the post-Kyoto agreement, which would ultimately have devastating impacts on the climate and society. We’ll all have to keep an eye out for how this discussion develops in the negotiations here in Bali.