How Much Is Enough?

Most of us now realize that we need to do something about global climate change. We know that we have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels such as oil and coal. But how much do we need to reduce emissions in order to prevent severe impacts on society and the environment? Most scientists and policy makers now believe that we need to keep prevent average global temperatures from rising 2°Celsius above pre-industrial levels Ok, what’s the big deal with the temperature going up a few more degree? Well, it may not seem like much, but the reality is that scientists project that even a 2°C increase in temperature will have very significant impacts on the climate. This is in part due to the fact that in certain areas, particularly the north and south poles, warming would be significantly more than 2°C.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released their Fourth Assessment Report on climate change (www.ipcc.ch/). This international network of scientists conducts regular analyses of all the peer reviewed scientific data related to climate change. They look through studies from scientists across the globe to assess whether climate change is happening, what the projected impacts will be, and how we can address the problem. The latest assessment revealed that yes indeed global temperatures are rising, that this is caused by human greenhouse gas emissions, and that there will be significant impacts on our climate systems as a result of this warming. Projected impacts are more severe droughts, more severe flooding, rising sea levels, more intensive storms, and other changes. These climate impacts are projected to displace millions of people along coastal areas (coastal cities under water), cause disruptions in food and water supplies for people across the globe (food and water prices increasing, more starving people, and conflict over water supplies) , and result in increased destruction of communities due to severe weather events (Hurricane Katrina all over again).

While the scientific community has been fairly certain about this for quite some time, the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report is the most conclusive of their studies, showing that they are more certain than ever before about all of the science behind climate change. They know if we continue with business as usual there will be devastating consequences for the entire world, including the United States.

So again, how much action do we need to take? Scientists and policy makers believe that global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak in 2015. That means that our global warming pollution would need to be the highest in 2015 and then begin to decline steadily after that. They believe that the developed world (such as the US, European Union, etc) would have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 1990 levels by 2030 and then 80% by 2050. Similarly, global greenhouse gas emissions (including developing countries like China and India, and developed countries) would need to be reduced 50% by 2050. (The United States is currently emitting about 16% above 1990 levels, just to give you a sense of where we’re at.) These reductions require serious action and an enormous shift in the way we think about energy supply, industrial processes, transportation, agriculture, forest protection, and our own lifestyles.

Luckily, we have some of the world’s best innovators thinking very hard about how we’re going to solve this problem. There have been thorough studies about how we can tackle each sector such as energy, transportation, agriculture, etc, in order to reduce our emissions in both the developed and developing world.

People are also examining how we’re going to pay for these changes in our infrastructure. Interestingly, a recent study conducted by McKinsey&Company, a global management consulting firm, found that the United States could reduce emissions by 50% with very little cost to the economy (www.mckinsey.com). This is because many of the emission saving measures would also save a significant amount in energy costs. The McKinsey&Company study shows that these money saving measures could pay for the other emission reduction measures with very little net cost to the US economy. This is very good news considering the drastic cuts in emissions that are needed to solve this very urgent problem. So, now that we know how to reduce our emissions and how to pay for it, what’s stopping US?

Anatomy of a COP (Conference of the Parties)

Today is quite a bit busier than the previous days. The halls are swelling with people, the sessions are packed, and even the traffic was significantly more congested on the way into the conference. I expect it will continue to become more and more crowded as we come closer to the high level sessions next week.

Some of you may be wondering what it’s like at these UN climate meetings. They aren’t quite like your typical professional development or educational conferences (though they certainly contain some similar elements) since the main reason for them is for world delegates to further develop the continually evolving international agreements to address climate change. I’ll attempt to explain the different elements that make up these meetings to provide a sense of what it’s like to be here. So without further delay, the elements of a UN climate conference.

Formal Meetings:
The conference is focused around the formal meetings of delegates from nearly two hundred different countries. There are various meeting tracks, or bodies, within the UNFCCC where different issues are discussed, so there are, in a sense, several concurrent conferences happening, each addressing these various issues. Topics such as the progress toward the goals of reducing emissions, capturing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it below ground, and financing solutions to climate change are just a few of the issues discussed in the various bodies.

At the plenary sessions, hundreds of delegates gather in one room and give formal remarks on the various agenda items. These remarks can include general statements about the country’s view on climate change or specific comments on aspects of the current agenda item. These plenary sessions are interesting, since you can see so many people together from across the globe and hear many different perspectives. There are interpreters at these sessions who translate the remarks into about seven different languages, so you can just pop on the wireless headphones and understand what’s being said even if the presenter does not speak your language.

Yesterday was the last of the opening plenary sessions and the various bodies have broken into “contact groups,” which are smaller committees that hash out the details of the key issues. The chair of each of the bodies will summarize the agreements made by the contact groups and will report back to the plenary later in the conference. These contact group meetings are closed to observers. As I mentioned above, next week is the high-level segment where the bigwigs from across the globe will arrive at the conference. There is talk that Al Gore may attend as well as a number of Congressional representatives from the US. Often a few presidents and prime ministers drop in to make statements on behalf of their countries. This is also the portion of the conference when the real decisions are made and the negotiations are finalized.

Strategy Meetings
Delegates from different countries have formed alliances with other countries that share similar perspectives and have common interests. For example, countries from Tuvalu, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Papua New Guinea, and other small island nations have formed an alliance, since they face similar challenges related to sea level rise as a consequence of climate change. Similarly, non-governmental organizations form strategic partnerships in order to enhance their political clout. For example, environmental groups collaborate with one another in order to analyze the state of the negotiations and brainstorm strategies to influence the outcomes. These alliance strategy meetings of countries and non-governmental organizations occur daily (or multiple times a day), and although they are closed to observers, it’s worth noting that they happen.

Side Events:
Side events are essentially panel discussions on a variety of topics related to climate change. These can focus on very broad issues such as climate change and hunger, climate change and public health, climate change and agriculture, climate change and fill in the blank here, etc. On the other hand, some of the side events are very technical and focus on the details of various aspects of the Kyoto Protocol, such as how is Article 6 of the Convention being implemented in Europe. Side events are typically one and a half or two hours long including question and answer periods. They provide a great opportunity to learn more in depth about a specific topic.

Exhibits:
Exhibits are essentially ongoing poster sessions or trade show displays sponsored by various non-governmental organizations (like Ithaca College and our neighbors the Institute for Development Studies), intergovernmental organizations (like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Parties (like the United States), and United Nations organizations (like the UN Environment Programme). Exhibits provide an opportunity to share information about successes in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, new research on the effects of climate change, recommendations related to global warming policies, or whatever else the exhibitors want to share. They’re a great opportunity for networking, both for the exhibitors and conference attendees.

Networking:
While this is not a scheduled part of the conference, there are many opportunities to network with people from other colleges and universities, representatives of non-governmental organizations, and delegates. You can chat with people in the exhibit area, between side events, at the cafés, on the shuttle, and anywhere else. This is perhaps the most interesting part of the conference, since you can meet intriguing people working on diverse issues related to climate change.

News Conferences:
These are typically sponsored by non-governmental organizations and Parties (countries). These are targeted toward media representatives, though sometimes non-governmental organization observers are allowed to attend. I’ve made it a habit to attend the Climate Action Network’s (CAN) daily news briefing. CAN is a network of all the environmental non-governmental organizations. I’ve found that this is a good way get the scoop on the environmental perspective related to the current state of the negotiations.

Miscellaneous Information Sources:
With so many things going on, it’s hard to keep track of everything that’s happening. These are a few information sources that can help you digest all the information.

Earth Negotiations Bulletin: This is an objective daily report of all the statements and discussions that happened during the formal meetings on the previous day. With so many formal meetings, this summary provides a great synopsis of what occurred. This tends to be very technical and assumes that the reader knows all the jargon involved, since it does not provide any context or background info on the topics. http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop13/

On the Side: This is a daily report on the majority of side events that took place the day before. Since you can’t be everywhere at once, this provides a good way to get the gist of what happened at the side events. http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop13/enbots/

ECO: This is the daily newsletter of the Climate Action Network. This highlights certain issues being discussed in the negotiations and usually advocates for delegates to change their positions in certain ways. http://www.climatenetwork.org/eco/

Traditional Media: Nothing like the old newspaper to help you figure out what’s going on in the world. The Jakarta Post provides an in-depth section on the conference in its daily publication. They seem to be doing a pretty good job covering the conference. http://www.thejakartapost.com

So, you can see that there’s quite a lot going on at these things. Each day begins with grabbing the “Daily Programme,” which has the complete schedule of all the formal meetings, side events, news conferences, and other special events. Upon arrival each morning, Warren and I look at the schedule and decide which events we want to attend. You really have to plan out your day each morning to make sure you catch all the things you want to experience. I usually attend 2-3 side events, staff the exhibit area, check out a bit of the plenary sessions, and read a small portion of the many publications I acquire daily. We’re usually here from 9:00 am to at least 9:00 pm, when we return to our accommodations and grab a bite to eat.

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The above photo is of the daily news conference of the Climate Action Network.

Ithaca College Reaches Out to the UNFCCC

Even though Ithaca College has had an official presence at two previous UN climate conferences (Montreal in 2005, and Nairobi in 2006), this is the first time we’ll be having an exhibit at the UNFCCC. Our goal is to spread the word about Ithaca College’s sustainability initiative and what we’re doing to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. The broader context of our exhibit is to demonstrate what colleges and universities can do to reduce their own impact on climate change and also to show that educational institutions and local municipalities throughout the United States are indeed taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions despite the lack of commitment at the federal level.

In just the few hours that we’ve been here so far (as of early afternoon on Monday), we’ve been able to speak with people from all over the world about what IC is doing to address climate change. I've also had the opportunity to speak with people about my interest in addressing environmental issues through social marketing, or using communications to raise awareness and encourage people to change their behaviors to more sustainable. Hopefully, we can increase the dialogue about addressing greenhouse gas emissions in the academic sector while getting the word out the Ithaca College sustainability initiative. Seems to be going well so far.

And So It Begins...

After countless hours on the plane, Warren Schlesinger and I have arrived in Bali, Indonesia in order to participate in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 10,000 people from across the globe are expected to meet here to discuss the next steps in addressing climate change. While the Kyoto Protocol commitment period approaches (2008-2012), delegates hope to agree upon the basic framework that will establish post-Kyoto emission reduction commitments. The idea is to build the next climate treaty in time to take effect immediately after the Kyoto Protocol commitment period ends, so there is no gap in time between the agreements. Any gap would likely ruin carbon trading markets and the other flexibility mechanisms that make up the rules and implementation strategies of Kyoto. Many countries and NGOs believe that the next climate treaty needs to be decided by 2009, so there is time for countries around the world to ratify it before the end of 2012. While no firm commitments are expected to be made in Bali on the details of the next treaty, delegates are hoping to come a bit closer to deciding what will be included post-Kyoto.

In addition to the timeline of developing the next treaty, one of the key issues is whether the post-2012 regime, as some call it, will have legally binding emission commitments. One of the most distinguishing aspects of the current Kyoto Protocol is that it does contain legally binding emission commitments meaning that consequences exist for countries that do not meet their greenhouse gas reduction targets. Environmental groups feel that it is critically important to create new mandatory commitments following Kyoto, rather than agree to weaker voluntary commitments. While all countries say they’re supportive of a new agreement to tackle climate change, many countries, such as Japan, have so far excluded language in their statements about legally binding emission reductions. Some believe this is a sign that delegates are aiming to take a step backward in the post-Kyoto agreement, which would ultimately have devastating impacts on the climate and society. We’ll all have to keep an eye out for how this discussion develops in the negotiations here in Bali.

Bali Here We Come

As my trip to the United Nations climate conference draws near, I’m flooded with memories from my first experience at the UN. Back in 2000 as a senior at IC I had the opportunity to attend the UN climate conference in The Hague, Netherlands. Greenpeace USA recruited 250 students from the United States for the US Student Climate Summit. The goal was to have students demonstrate to the US negotiating delegation that there was strong public support for taking action on climate change at the international level. Another goal was to have students serve as the eyes and ears of the American public about what was happening at the conference. That is, to report back to our family, friends, and communities about how positively (or negatively) the US delegation was contributing to the negotiations. At the conference I spoke with delegates from across the globe, attended workshops on a variety of climate change topics, and participated in media events to raise awareness of the key issues being discussed.

Probably the most exciting part of the conference was seeing all the people in action who were working to ensure that the negotiations had positive outcomes. I was truly inspired by seeing the dozens of representatives from environmental organizations working tirelessly to provide constant analysis of the various scenarios at play during the negotiations and attempting to influence world leaders to maintain strong commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, the details of which were still being decided in The Hague. This really sealed the deal for me in terms of realizing that I wanted to make a positive impact on the world related to environmental issues. I thought, if all these people can work to enact positive change, then so can I.

Years after The Hague when I came back to work at Ithaca College, I thought other students could benefit from participating in these UN climate conferences. Realizing that the next meeting was going to be in Montreal, relatively close to Ithaca, I saw an opportunity to engage IC students in the upcoming conference. It seemed like a good idea to have Ithaca College apply for observer status, which is required to participate in the climate conferences, and send a group of students to Montreal. I ran the idea past a few of my colleagues at IC and they agreed that it would be great to get the College involved with these UN conferences.

Before I knew it, we had an all star committee working on this project. Tom Shevory (politics), Jason Hamilton (biology), Susan Allen-Gil (biology), Marian Brown (Provost’s Office), and Gordon Rowland (communications) were just a few of the key players involved with this initiative. Needless to say, our application was accepted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the administering body of the UN climate conferences, meaning that we can now attend and participate in these meetings. This observer status designation gave us the opportunity to send 20 students to the climate conference in Montreal in 2005 led by Jason Hamilton, Tom Shevory, Casey Malsam (residential life), and myself. Since then, Garry Thomas and I attended the next conference in Nairobi, Kenya in 2006. And now here I am, heading to Bali, Indonesia with Warren Schlesinger.

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The photo is of Jan Pronk, the chair of The Hague UN climate conference, symbolically putting a sandbag on a dike being built around the conference center. The dike was constructed by NGOs in order to represent that the Netherlands would be submerged under water due to rising sea levels as a result of climate change. Pronk showed his support by participating and called on delegates to come to a positive agreement in order to tackle climate change. I happened to be near him and was captured on the Associated Press photo that had worldwide circulation.